Table of contents
Definition
History
Theories of technological forecasting
Methods of technological forecasting
Commonly adopted methods of technology forecasting
Time Frame for Technology Forecasts
Benefits of Technological forecasting
References
Technology Foresight is a combination of creative thinking, expert views, and alternative scenarios to make a contribution to strategic planning. Technological Forecasting (TF) is concerned with the investigation of new trends, radically new technologies, and new forces that could arise from the interplay of factors such as new public concerns, national policies, and scientific discoveries. Many of these forces are beyond the control, influence, and knowledge of individual companies.
The development of a technology forecast can be divided into three separate actions:
Framing the problem and defining the desired outcome of the forecast,
Gathering and analyzing the data using a variety of methodologies, and
Interpreting the results and assembling the forecast from the available information.
Technology forecasting has existed in one form or another for more than a century, but it was not until after World War II (WWII) that it began to evolve as a structured discipline. The motivation for this evolution was the U.S. government’s desire to identify technology areas that would have significant military importance.
Theories of technological forecasting
Neoclassical theories Technological change takes place in the form of shifts of the production function towards the origin.
Marxist theory
Karl marl perceived technology as not self-generating, but as a process directed by willful. Conscious, active people and moulded by useful forces. He held that technology changes the development of the productive forces which was the prime mover of history.
Schumpeter’s theory
Schumpeter's theory of development assigns a paramount role to the entrepreneur and innovations introduced by him in the process of economic development. According to Schumpeter, the process of production is marked by a combination of material and immaterial productive forces. The Schumpeterian production function can, therefore, be written as –
Q = ƒ [k, r, I, u, ν) …(1)
Where Q stands for the output, k for the Schumpeterian concept of “produced means of production”, r for natural resources, l for the employed labor force.
Evolutionary theory
This suggests a biological analogy to explain technological change. The Darwinian two-state process of mutation (invention) and selection (innovation) has been employed to understand the evolution of technology.
Market pull theory
Market Pull', refers to the need/requirement for a new product or a solution to a problem, which comes from the market place. The need is identified by potential customers or market research. A product or a range of products are developed, to solve the original need.
Technology push theory
Technology is defined as an autonomous or quasi-autonomous factor. It assumes a one-way casual determination approach ie from science to the economy.
Methods of technological forecasting
Commonly adopted methods of technology forecasting include the
Delphi method :
The Delphi technique is used where a consensus of expert opinion is required on the timing, probability, and identification of future technological goals or consumer needs and the factors likely to affect their achievement. It is best used in making long-term forecasts and revealing how new technologies and other factors could trigger discontinuities in technological trajectories. The choice of experts and the identification of their level and area of expertise are important; the structuring of the questions is even more important. Experts in non-technological fields can be included to ensure that trends in economic, social, and environmental fields are not overlooked.
Exploratory technique: The formal forecasting techniques are standard components that are described in many textbooks on forecasting techniques (see specific techniques). Specific techniques for forecasting fall into two main categories, exploratory and normative. Information about each technique is available in various references.
Exploratory techniques are primarily concerned with the analysis of historical data. Selected attributes such as functional performance, technical parameters, economic performance, etc. are plotted against time. Since it is usually assumed that progress is evolutionary and that technological progress is not random, it is possible to generate characteristic curves or patterns from the data, and from these patterns, forecasts can be made with varying degrees of certainty. However, changes do occur and the influence and impact of new or surprising factors must not be disregarded. Examples of relevant exploratory techniques are:
S-curves
cycles
trend extrapolation
technology substitution
— all of which rely on a large amount of statistical data, which may or may not be available freely.
She met someone and got into a relationship, I didn't know about it which isn't an issue because at that stage she was trying to know the person more. Time passed I noticed that she wasn't her best anymore. She felt a bit off but I knew she needed someone to talk to. I never asked any questions, I just waited until she felt comfortable to speak about what was bothering her. She finally opened up and it was about the relationship. The person she is dating isn't stable with her, he is so controlling.
Her words:
According to her: he does not call me if I do not call him. He complains when I call him after work hour to say hi and chat with him, he says he is stressed and needs to rest. He never comes to visit, I am always the only one visiting him. He said he can never go and visit any girl. He also doesn't like when I make my hair, he gets angry and says I should make only cornrows or stick to my natural hair. He also has a baby.
Melody speaking: You do not need such a person that does not have your time and value the time you try to share with him. There is obviously not a need for you in his life. You are in a relationship with yourself. If he doesn't see a reason why both of you should speak daily then you are dating yourself and being used. It is a relationship and daily communication is needed to keep things in check, growth, and heart connections. You need to understand what is good for you, people do not give you rules that are degrading to follow. If he doesn't see the need to visit you then you need to stop visiting him. Understand your value and where he placed you and respect yourself.
Her words: I understand, but I just always feel like calling him.
Melody speaking: You need to tell yourself the bitter truth and work on it.
Her words: Ok
The story continues.
During the beginning of the Covid 19 outbreak, I advised her to leave her place of assignment and go back to her family before the total lockdown begins so she will not end up staying alone for a long time. She did that and we continued to speak on daily basis. She informed me that she has decided not to call him since he did not call to check up on her. This was already weeks of him not calling her. Her brother showed me text messages between his sister and her boyfriend expressing these words:
One day after some weeks, during the lockdown he called her and she started communicating with him again without us knowing, (she actually doesn't need anyone's permission tho). He convinced her that he was sorry as usual saying he has changed, my friend accepted the apology, and instead of waiting to see the change he claimed to have, she packed her box that same week and travelled to see him during the peak of the Covid 19 period without her mum knowing, she left the house and went to visit him for days without informing her family. They got back from church on a Sunday and she was nowhere to be found. Knowing how close she is to me, the brother called me, I called her but she didn't answer or even reply to my messages for about two days tho she was online. Her brother called me asking me if I have spoken to her, that the mum is going crazy because she isn't picking the mum's calls and her boyfriend is also not picking his calls. They wanted to be sure she is fine.
Note: In the part of Nigeria where her boyfriend stays, you need a boat to cross over and this was during the lockdown.
After some days my friend replied to me and said she was at her boyfriend's place, and that they are back together. I wished her well tho I told her she made wrong moves by going to see him but life is all about doing what makes you happy and so good luck to you.
She got back from his place and everything went back to nothing. He did not call her to check if she arrived home safely. She travelled back to her place of assignment he still did not call her. It took almost two months and he did not call her. She told me that she has made up her mind to move on again and I said well it's always your choice to make. This guy is obviously not interested in you and he is not hiding it. The decision is yours, it is more than a month and a man you went to visit in the midst of the pandemic couldn't call you after a long journey to find out if you made it home or if you even got to your place of assignment safely, well it's up to you to decide. She said I am done this time.
I believed her at this point. She later told me that she dreamt he had another baby, and that she has been suspecting it. She also mentioned that she went to church and was praying and the pastor walked up to her and told her that the person you are praying for isn't what God wants for her. To me, she already got the final message. My heart was calm.
Things went on smoothly, we chatted as usual for almost two months and suddenly I stopped hearing from her regularly again, I was wondering what was going on, we pray together and see movies together online sometimes. I got a bit worried but felt it was her new job which was taking a bit of her time. Not until I found out that she was going for her marriage introduction with this guy.
Here's what happened: He called her and told her he was ready to get married to her, she accepted immediately and informed her people that she was coming for her marriage introduction that same week he called her after not calling her for almost 2 months. I did not know she was already planning her marriage introduction until two days before the introduction. I actually called several times to find out if all was ok with her but she said yes and that she had something to discuss with me which she later opened up that she was going to do a marriage introduction with her boyfriend, the date has been fixed and that I should allow her to make this mistake. I reminded her about what she told me the pastor said and she replied to me saying" please allow me to disobey God and please I need your support. I was actually surprised by her words. I told her I will not be a part of this but I wish her well in her marriage introduction. I also told her that I can not watch her make a wrong life decision that at this point I am tired of the drama and I do not think we should remain friends anymore because she is not totally truthful and involving me in her personal life affects my mental health. She explained herself but after that phone call, I washed my hands wash her life. She went for her marriage introductions and that was the last time I heard from her.
For those reading who do not understand what marriage introduction is, it means taking your husband to be, to your uncles, kinsmen, elders, family, and friends to introduce him to them. After this celebration for your forthcoming marriage, the payment of the bride price will be made and, you fix a date for the wedding.
1. Blood Pressure Monitors:
Sphygmomanometer to measure the patient's blood pressure. Technology has advanced and using a blood pressure monitoring device to check your blood pressure has been made easy. There are now automated machines that help measure both systolic and diastolic blood pressure with high accuracy and immediately. These instruments are a must-have to keep track of blood pressure regularly.
Even though I don't like the cold that comes with autumn and how our body tries to adjust, the beautiful yellow leaves that shine and brighten the streets make it so beautiful, interesting, and picture-worthy. Summer weddings are perfect but also autumn weddings can be a fairy tale. If you are looking to do an autumn wedding, you should consider things before planning a fall wedding.
Experimenting with colors is so much fun. All brown combination never looked so good. Such a lovely chocolate look. This is a trend I will like to try. It looks super classy and simple.
What is the essence of the overall model of training and staff development?
Improved employee performance the employee who receives the necessary training is more able to perform in their job. The training will give the employee a greater understanding of their responsibilities within their role, and in turn, build their confidence. This confidence will enhance their overall performance and this can only benefit the company. Employees who are competent and on top of changing industry standards help your company hold a position as a leader and strong competitor within the industry.
Reduced employee turnover
Addressing weaknesses
Boosts company profile and reputation
Innovation
When employees receive consistent training and upskilling, it fosters their creativity. The training programs help employees to be more independent and creative when they encounter challenges in their work.
